tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Kailua/Kona via Honolulu: arrives on time 52%

  1. 08:15 SJC → 10:49 HNL
    AS 1416 · Alaska · 5h 34m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:51 HNL → 12:40 KOA
    AS 1088 · Alaska · 49m · 71% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Jose). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 25mSJC 08:15 to KOA 12:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.