tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Kailua/Kona via Seattle: arrives on time 27%

  1. 08:20 SJC → 10:31 SEA
    AS 1426 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 41% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:27 SEA → 14:35 KOA
    AS 204 · Alaska · 6h 08m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Jose). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip9h 15mSJC 08:20 to KOA 14:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.