tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Reno via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 08:20 SJC → 10:31 SEA
    AS 1426 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 41% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:53 SEA → 13:50 RNO
    AS 273 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 84% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip5h 30mSJC 08:20 to RNO 13:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.