tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 10%

  1. 08:20 SJC → 10:31 SEA
    AS 1426 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 41% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:29 SEA → 17:38 ORD
    AS 346 · Alaska · 4h 09m · 28% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip7h 18mSJC 08:20 to ORD 17:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.