tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Minneapolis via Seattle: arrives on time 59%

  1. 08:20 SJC → 10:31 SEA
    AS 1426 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 41% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:51 SEA → 17:19 MSP
    AS 509 · Alaska · 3h 28m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 59mSJC 08:20 to MSP 17:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.