tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Las Vegas via Seattle: arrives on time 32%

  1. 08:20 SJC → 10:31 SEA
    AS 1426 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 41% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:31 SEA → 14:16 LAS
    AS 738 · Alaska · 2h 45m · 80% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 56mSJC 08:20 to LAS 14:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.