tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Portland via Sacramento: arrives on time 50%

  1. 11:55 SEA → 13:57 SMF
    AS 1428 · Alaska · 2h 02m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:55 SMF → 16:27 PDX
    AS 1600 · Alaska · 1h 32m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 32mSEA 11:55 to PDX 16:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.