tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Detroit via Seattle: arrives on time 49%

  1. 18:35 SAN → 21:35 SEA
    AS 1431 · Alaska · 3h 00m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:22 SEA → 05:41 DTW +1 day
    AS 343 · Alaska · 4h 19m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip8h 06mSAN 18:35 to DTW 05:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.