tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fairbanks via Portland: arrives on time 85%

  1. 18:17 MSP → 20:07 PDX
    AS 1434 · Alaska · 3h 50m · 82% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 52m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 PDX → 00:55 FAI +1 day
    AS 1521 · Alaska · 3h 56m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 67 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 52m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip9h 38mMSP 18:17 to FAI 00:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.