tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 34%

  1. 10:42 PDX → 12:39 SFO
    AS 1445 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 55% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:38 SFO → 22:26 JFK
    AS 42 · Alaska · 5h 48m · 68% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 44mPDX 10:42 to JFK 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.