tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → San Diego via Seattle: arrives on time 22%

  1. 14:55 OAK → 17:00 SEA
    AS 1464 · Alaska · 2h 05m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:53 SEA → 20:49 SAN
    AS 1388 · Alaska · 2h 56m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip5h 54mOAK 14:55 to SAN 20:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.