tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Los Angeles via Seattle: arrives on time 56%

  1. 14:55 OAK → 17:00 SEA
    AS 1464 · Alaska · 2h 05m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:10 SEA → 21:00 LAX
    AS 524 · Alaska · 2h 50m · 82% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 05mOAK 14:55 to LAX 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.