tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:55 OAK → 17:00 SEA
    AS 1464 · Alaska · 2h 05m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 SEA → 23:59 ORD
    AS 538 · Alaska · 4h 11m · 80% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 04mOAK 14:55 to ORD 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.