tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 47%

  1. 14:55 OAK → 17:00 SEA
    AS 1464 · Alaska · 2h 05m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 SEA → 18:56 PDX
    AS 2302 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 01mOAK 14:55 to PDX 18:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.