tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 51%

  1. 10:23 SMF → 12:22 SEA
    AS 1468 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:10 SEA → 19:21 ORD
    AS 410 · Alaska · 4h 11m · 72% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 58mSMF 10:23 to ORD 19:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.