tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Barbara via San Diego: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:20 ORD → 08:54 SAN
    AS 1470 · Alaska · 4h 34m · 75% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 55m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:49 SAN → 14:02 SBA
    AS 2177 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 13m · 63% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 190 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 55m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip9h 42mORD 06:20 to SBA 14:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.