tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Bozeman via San Diego: arrives on time 50%

  1. 07:26 SEA → 10:23 SAN
    AS 1471 · Alaska · 2h 57m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:38 SAN → 15:24 BZN
    AS 2221 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 58mSEA 07:26 to BZN 15:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.