tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Kailua/Kona via Seattle: arrives on time 52%

  1. 12:57 SMF → 14:56 SEA
    AS 1476 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:59 SEA → 19:05 KOA
    AS 238 · Alaska · 6h 06m · 77% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 9h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip9h 08mSMF 12:57 to KOA 19:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.