tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Dulles via Seattle: arrives on time 54%

  1. 12:57 SMF → 14:56 SEA
    AS 1476 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:01 SEA → 23:59 IAD
    AS 406 · Alaska · 4h 58m · 81% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip8h 02mSMF 12:57 to IAD 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.