tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 48%

  1. 12:57 SMF → 14:56 SEA
    AS 1476 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:55 SEA → 16:55 PDX
    AS 686 · Alaska · 1h 00m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip3h 58mSMF 12:57 to PDX 16:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.