tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Eugene via Seattle: arrives on time 38%

  1. 12:57 SMF → 14:56 SEA
    AS 1476 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:50 SEA → 17:00 EUG
    AS 2338 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 10m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 03mSMF 12:57 to EUG 17:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.