tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → El Paso via Seattle: arrives on time 38%

  1. 10:09 SAN → 13:13 SEA
    AS 1477 · Alaska · 3h 04m · 75% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:08 SEA → 18:36 ELP
    AS 2191 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 3h 28m · 61% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 27mSAN 10:09 to ELP 18:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.