tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Oakland via San Diego: arrives on time 48%

  1. 08:59 DCA → 11:39 SAN
    AS 15 · Alaska · 5h 40m · 72% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:30 SAN → 14:10 OAK
    AS 3218 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip8h 11mDCA 08:59 to OAK 14:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.