tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 90%

  1. 15:53 FAI → 20:36 SEA
    AS 1508 · Alaska · 3h 43m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 20m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 23:56 SEA → 06:02 ORD +1 day
    AA 2881 · American · 4h 06m · 94% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 11h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 110 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 20m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip11h 09mFAI 15:53 to ORD 06:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.