tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 80%

  1. 15:53 FAI → 20:36 SEA
    AS 1508 · Alaska · 3h 43m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 41m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 00:17 SEA → 06:20 ORD +1 day
    AS 328 · Alaska · 4h 03m · 83% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 11h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 176 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 41m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip11h 27mFAI 15:53 to ORD 06:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.