tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 46%

  1. 15:53 FAI → 20:36 SEA
    AS 1508 · Alaska · 3h 43m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 SEA → 22:25 PDX
    AS 498 · Alaska · 57m · 74% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 32mFAI 15:53 to PDX 22:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.