tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Denver via Seattle: arrives on time 85%

  1. 00:19 FAI → 05:00 SEA
    AS 1509 · Alaska · 3h 41m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 04m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:04 SEA → 11:56 DEN
    AS 375 · Alaska · 2h 52m · 88% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 139 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 04m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip9h 37mFAI 00:19 to DEN 11:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.