tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 82%

  1. 00:19 FAI → 05:00 SEA
    AS 1509 · Alaska · 3h 41m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:00 SEA → 12:03 ORD
    AS 578 · Alaska · 4h 03m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip8h 44mFAI 00:19 to ORD 12:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.