tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 87%

  1. 00:19 FAI → 05:00 SEA
    AS 1509 · Alaska · 3h 41m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 07:00 SEA → 13:15 ORD
    UA 2618 · United · 4h 15m · 92% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 9h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time87%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip9h 56mFAI 00:19 to ORD 13:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.