tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 18:02 ANC → 22:37 SEA
    AS 1518 · Alaska · 3h 35m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:27 SEA → 02:15 FAI +1 day
    AS 1512 · Alaska · 3h 48m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip8h 13mANC 18:02 to FAI 02:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.