tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Seattle via Portland: arrives on time 72%

  1. 00:39 FAI → 05:30 PDX
    AS 1520 · Alaska · 3h 51m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:19 PDX → 07:17 SEA
    AS 499 · Alaska · 58m · 93% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip5h 38mFAI 00:39 to SEA 07:17, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.