tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Seattle via Los Angeles: arrives on time 45%

  1. 16:30 SFO → 18:06 LAX
    AS 1523 · Alaska · 1h 36m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:09 LAX → 21:58 SEA
    AS 1368 · Alaska · 2h 49m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 28mSFO 16:30 to SEA 21:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.