tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Anchorage via Fairbanks: arrives on time 48%

  1. 09:53 SEA → 12:44 FAI
    AS 1552 · Alaska · 3h 51m · 78% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Fairbanks (FAI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:34 FAI → 14:41 ANC
    AS 1415 · Alaska · 1h 07m · 76% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 48mSEA 09:53 to ANC 14:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.