tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Medford via Los Angeles: arrives on time 65%

  1. 10:15 SFO → 11:44 LAX
    AS 1602 · Alaska · 1h 29m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:15 LAX → 15:14 MFR
    AS 2328 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 59m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip4h 59mSFO 10:15 to MFR 15:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.