tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Francisco via Portland: arrives on time 47%

  1. 06:30 EWR → 09:33 PDX
    AS 1630 · Alaska · 6h 03m · 90% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:42 PDX → 12:39 SFO
    AS 1445 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 55% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 9h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip9h 09mEWR 06:30 to SFO 12:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.