tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Newark via Seattle: arrives on time 49%

  1. 18:49 LAS → 21:34 SEA
    AS 1681 · Alaska · 2h 45m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 SEA → 06:59 EWR +1 day
    AS 314 · Alaska · 5h 19m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip9h 10mLAS 18:49 to EWR 06:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.