tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Los Angeles via Portland: arrives on time 42%

  1. 17:46 PHL → 20:37 PDX
    AS 1787 · Alaska · 5h 51m · 65% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:27 PDX → 23:56 LAX
    AS 1389 · Alaska · 2h 29m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip9h 10mPHL 17:46 to LAX 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.