tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Seattle via Portland: arrives on time 52%

  1. 17:46 PHL → 20:37 PDX
    AS 1787 · Alaska · 5h 51m · 65% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 PDX → 22:27 SEA
    AS 2421 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 41mPHL 17:46 to SEA 22:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.