tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Fairbanks via Portland: arrives on time 55%

  1. 19:05 DEN → 20:50 PDX
    AS 1807 · Alaska · 2h 45m · 58% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 PDX → 00:55 FAI +1 day
    AS 1521 · Alaska · 3h 56m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 2 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 50mDEN 19:05 to FAI 00:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.