tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → San Francisco via Portland: arrives on time 34%

  1. 19:05 DEN → 20:50 PDX
    AS 1807 · Alaska · 2h 45m · 58% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 PDX → 23:36 SFO
    AS 2112 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 51m · 64% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 31mDEN 19:05 to SFO 23:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.