tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 69%

  1. 12:11 FAI → 16:56 SEA
    AS 1839 · Alaska · 3h 45m · 97% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 SEA → 23:59 ORD
    AS 538 · Alaska · 4h 11m · 80% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 48mFAI 12:11 to ORD 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.