tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → San Jose via Portland: arrives on time 56%

  1. 17:08 JFK → 20:33 PDX
    AS 19 · Alaska · 6h 25m · 75% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 PDX → 23:21 SJC
    AS 678 · Alaska · 1h 51m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip9h 13mJFK 17:08 to SJC 23:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.