tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → Oakland via Seattle: arrives on time 70%

  1. 21:40 OGG → 06:17 SEA
    AS 206 · Alaska · 5h 37m · 82% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:12 SEA → 09:26 OAK +1 day
    AS 533 · Alaska · 2h 14m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip8h 46mOGG 21:40 to OAK 09:26, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.