tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 31%

  1. 21:40 OGG → 06:17 SEA
    AS 206 · Alaska · 5h 37m · 82% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:03 SEA → 09:20 SFO +1 day
    AS 725 · Alaska · 2h 17m · 52% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip8h 40mOGG 21:40 to SFO 09:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.