tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Oakland via Seattle: arrives on time 62%

  1. 07:00 JFK → 10:16 SEA
    AS 21 · Alaska · 6h 16m · 68% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:41 SEA → 13:59 OAK
    AS 1328 · Alaska · 2h 18m · 73% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 59mJFK 07:00 to OAK 13:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.