tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 44%

  1. 07:00 JFK → 10:16 SEA
    AS 21 · Alaska · 6h 16m · 68% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:06 SEA → 13:55 SNA
    AS 1357 · Alaska · 2h 49m · 85% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 9h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip9h 55mJFK 07:00 to SNA 13:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.