tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → San Jose via Seattle: arrives on time 38%

  1. 07:00 JFK → 10:16 SEA
    AS 21 · Alaska · 6h 16m · 68% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:08 SEA → 13:20 SJC
    AS 335 · Alaska · 2h 12m · 69% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip9h 20mJFK 07:00 to SJC 13:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.