tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 82%

  1. 07:00 JFK → 10:16 SEA
    AS 21 · Alaska · 6h 16m · 68% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 33m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:49 SEA → 16:41 SNA
    AS 773 · Alaska · 2h 52m · 87% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 12h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 168 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 33m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip12h 41mJFK 07:00 to SNA 16:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.