tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Honolulu via Seattle: arrives on time 48%

  1. 07:00 JFK → 10:16 SEA
    AS 21 · Alaska · 6h 16m · 68% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 14m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:30 SEA → 16:34 HNL
    AS 899 · Alaska · 6h 04m · 53% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 15h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 149 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 14m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip15h 34mJFK 07:00 to HNL 16:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.