tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 54%

  1. 07:00 JFK → 10:16 SEA
    AS 21 · Alaska · 6h 16m · 68% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 49m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:05 SEA → 13:06 PDX
    AS 2181 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 01m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 64 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 49m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip9h 06mJFK 07:00 to PDX 13:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.